On March 23, 2026, the Province of Ontario announced its intention to assume the role of the City of Toronto in the tripartite agreement overseeing Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport. Premier Doug Ford further committed to utilizing special economic zone powers to accelerate the airport’s expansion and modernization, including enabling it to accommodate jet traffic. Although aviation falls under federal jurisdiction, the province’s involvement reflects recent federal failure in leadership by canceling Pickering Airport without providing an alternate.
Every Transport Canada study, including the latest 2020 Pickering Lands Aviation Sector Analysis (ASA report) has confirmed the need for new airport capacity in the Greater Toronto Area. The ASA report outlined “When” and “How” this expansion could happen. The question for the ASA consultants was never “IF” a Pickering airport was needed. The report indicates that without assuming “unlimited government funding and power” capable of overriding local interests, developing Pickering Airport is a sensible approach.
The ASA report provided an in-depth analysis of how existing airports in the Greater Toronto Area could be expanded to accommodate anticipated growth through 2036. However, this supersizing of existing airports would demand significant government funding and intervention. A review of the expansions that will be needed just at Waterloo and Pearson Airports mentioned in the ASA report shows a minimal of $4 Billion dollars in new funding.
The ASA report states that it is prudent to begin with the development of a smaller industrial and specialty passenger airport in Pickering, using land that has been reserved for this purpose. This new Pickering airport could then be enlarged as needed with private funding. Supersizing existing airports was provided as a choice enabling postponing the need for a new airport in Pickering, not its cancellation.
A follow up study to the ASA report was announced in 2023 with much fan fair to make a final recommendation.
Then in January 2025, seemly out of the blue, just before a federal election a new Minister of Transport, Anita Anand, promised to cancel Pickering Airport. Reporters at the time asked the obvious question, “was this decision supported by the study announced in 2023 and when would the study be released?”
The Minister refused to answer the questions.
I submitted an access to Information request to obtain the report. The reply I received was shocking!
“A thorough search of records under the control of Transport Canada was conducted and no records were found pertaining to your request, as there was no report produced from the tender.”
The study announced with much fan fair in 2023 had been quietly killed and could not have supported the minister’s decision to cancel Pickering Airport.
The choice to cancel the airport was arbitrary.
The ASA report states that the only reasonable way to add new capacity without building Pickering Airport is by expanding existing airports including Billy Bishop, Waterloo and Hamilton. After the election, the aviation industry waited with anticipation on announcements forcing future expansions beyond existing master plans at city-controlled airports. Stunningly, no announcement was forth coming. The federal government had instead decided to do nothing at all. To allow the Toronto region’s aviation infrastructure to become an economic choke point.
Instead of leadership, the federal government froze, like a deer in the headlights of an oncoming future dominated by aviation.
The province of Ontario is now moving to salvage what it can by taking the initiative in expanding Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport. An opening move on airport expansions that, according to the ASA report, will be needed across the Greater Toronto Area. Billy Bishops current master plan is for 3.85 million passengers building on the existing terminal and adding safety overruns for a slightly expanded 5000ft runway. New passenger traffic of 10 million or more have now been mentioned by the Toronto Port Authority. This is expected to require a terminal building triple the current size and a 6500 ft runway able to support regional jets such as the Embraer 195, and the Airbus 220.
Without Pickering Airport, the provinces actions to follow the recommendations of the ASA report to expand existing airports is a reasonable path forward. Removing the political barriers and brining in jets at Billy Bishop is a clear path to keeping Toronto economically competitive.
Regardless, the ASA report’s message remains clear – a new airport like Pickering is still required someplace in the area to support long term growth. Expanding elsewhere first will simply postpone its development.
As the cancellation of Pickering Airport has not yet been finalized, there is still time for the federal government to reconsider its lack of action. Ontario’s focus on breaking down municipal silos that can hindered future growth comes at a cost. Fast forwarding the expansions of current airports will significantly impact the surrounding communities. Their voters deserve more than indifference from a federal government that should be providing leadership in this area.
Although much remains unsaid in Ontario’s press release and the pending official legislation, the NEW federal government’s lack of protest speaks volumes. Premier Doug Ford is taking action to expand Ontario’s responsibilities to include airports—a rare opportunity. The province is starting to work with private industry and investors to fund new, accessible aviation capacity for utility, industrial, and passenger needs across the region.
The federal government must work with the province of Ontario to plan new aviation capacity by reversing the decision to cancel Pickering Airport. Now is the time for decisive leadership.
References:
Ontario Expanding Billy Bishop Airport | Ontario Newsroom
Tripartite-Agreement-1983-original-1985-and-2003-amendments
Transport Canada Pickering Lands
Aviation Sector Analysis (ASA ) report from Transport Canada
Related posts:
Can Canada overcome a provincial mindset to build new airports? – Friends of Pickering Airport
Final Pickering Airport Capacity Study Airborne Again! – Friends of Pickering Airport
$4 Billion in “Modest Expansions” Accounting – Friends of Pickering Airport
Pickering hogwash
Toronto peeked at 472,000 movements pre Covid. Last year they were below 400,000.
2017 twenty year Master plan…60 terminal gates by 2037.
None have been built.
Ms flint was asked for her new gate build projections at the last May AGM. She waffled.
The Lift program is smoke. So are the growth projections. Yours and theirs.
Gtaa are broke. They beg for money.
No company will build in pickering.. they had their chance and none appeared.
London city Uk is going transatlantic in their plans.. Their runway matches Oshawa for length. They have vision. Oshawa does not.