On Monday, a surprise dramatic announcement took place that could cost taxpayers billions. Canada’s Transport Minister, Anita Anand, said the Federal Liberal government has decided against allowing the development of Pickering Airport. Minister Anand’s promised to transfer the “vast majority” of federal land set aside for economic development and an airport to Parks Canada.
This promise marks a major shift in Durham region’s economic development plans and will change transportation infrastructure needs across Southern Ontario. It has raised many unanswered questions, the issue of lawsuits seeking compensation and the spectre of a new scandal.
An economic opportunity in jeopardy
The Pickering airport land is a unique assembly of 8700 acres. It was assembled at a great cost to the tax payer to support Canada’s transportation infrastructure. It is serviced by Highway 407 and the Havelock rail line. More than 2.4 million people live within the 25-kilometer Airport Economic Zone (AEZ) radius. A near-perfect location for an inland port that will create economic prosperity and attract investment. An economic hub connecting the Durham region directly to the world in the new age of American tariffs.
The economic zone created by the new airport and an associated industrial park is expected to be developed with private investment attracted from all over the world. It will require 40,000 work years of construction trade work and create 60,000 high-paying jobs. It is expected to add $12 billion in annual regional economic benefits, generating $800 million a year in tax revenue for governments at all levels.
Did Transport Canada’s not-yet-released 2023 report even consider the full economic potential for the Pickering lands? And if it did, and supports the airport cancellation, why has it not been released? Will it stand up to the scrutiny of an unbiased review?
Does the Minister of Transport now have another location for this development in mind? Or are we just throwing it all away at the very moment it is needed?
What is Transport Canada’s plan to provide additional aviation capacity in the Toronto area?
The last three Transport Canada reports (completed in 2004, 2010 and 2020) stated that new aviation infrastructure will be needed in the Toronto area no later than 2036.
The Provincial growth plan has the Toronto region reaching 11 million in population and 5 million jobs by 2050. Today, 2.4 million people live within 25 km of the Pickering site. The province estimates that there will be an 80+% increase in population and a 50+% increase in employment by 2051.
The latest airport master plans of Hamilton and the Region of Waterloo responsibly reflect the potential for aviation growth in their respective regions. That growth is modest in comparison to the total Toronto region need. Hamilton and Waterloo airports are not the saviours for long-term commercial aviation growth in the Toronto region that some would have you believe. At best, they are the ugly stepsisters to Pickering Airport’s Cinderella location and ability to attract private investment.
Canadians like to travel and demand the right to free movement. Increased population means increased demand for airport capacity for cargo, passenger and utility flights.
People coming here whether for business, personal or pleasure are not going to accept travelling for hours or many kilometres from remote locations to a Toronto region destination. Even the fittest traveller will find spending hours getting to or from their homes or businesses to a congested airport frustrating. It reduces productivity and increases congestion.
The idea that billions in Government funding can transform a distant location into a replacement for the Pickering site is the same less-than-brilliant thinking that gave us Mirabel airport.
What is the plan for additional aviation capacity in the Toronto area?
How much will it cost to replace Pickering Airport?
Is the fall-back plan to saddle taxpayers with the burden of funding badly needed new industrial and passenger aviation capacity in Toronto? To build just the terminal capacity mentioned in Transport Canada’s 2020 ASA report at Waterloo and Hamilton airports is at least $4 Billion. That excludes any other on-airport facilities as well as any required public road and transit connection etc.
Billions more could be needed to expand Pearson beyond its current LIFT plans. Without billions of federal tax dollars supporting a major rebuild congestion and fees will soar. The cost could be two or three times the cost for the development of a Pickering airport. Unlike Pickering Airport, the ability to utilize private capital will be limited. This will need to be taxpayer-funded.
Will the government reimburse the Seaton Community developers for front-ending the servicing capacity required for development of the federal Pickering lands?
In 2016, the Region of Durham and the Seaton Community developers entered into a contractual agreement whereby the developers would oversize the water and waste-water systems in Seaton, providing additional capacity for the full economic development of the federal Pickering lands including an airport.
The Seaton developers agreed to fund the oversizing (valued at $70 million in 2016$) with the understanding that the future developers of the Pickering lands would reimburse them. Allowing for inflation in construction costs, the cost of oversizing the water and waste-water systems in Seaton would now exceed $100 million.
Did the federal government consider this contractual agreement when deciding on the future use of the Pickering lands? Importantly, will Transport Canada now reimburse the Seaton Community developers for the $100+ million? Or is Parks Canada paying this bill? Ultimately, they will be spending our tax dollars.
Will the sweetheart land lease deals of $120 an acre a year to the five corporations leasing most of the land continue?
Approximately 5,600 acres of land is being leased for $120 annually per acre for agriculture (or roughly $700,000 annually in total). Will these leases finally be opened for competitive bidding?
A group of developers purchased un-serviced land in the Pickering Innovation Corridor for approximately $400,000 an acre. Using this value means the existing $120 a year land leases are at a paltry 1/3300 or 00.03% of the lands true value. Serviced commercial land is averaging $1.6 million an acre in the GTA. These prices point to the total value of the Pickering lands at between $3.5 to $9 billion dollars today.
How many Tax dollars will it cost to turn the land into a park?
Currently, the land is being farmed, leased by private corporations and the public is not allowed to access it.
Why was so little effort shown for such a huge decision?
Why was the Prime Minister not part of such a monumental economic shift? One involving billions of dollars in public land? One potentially committing the government to tens of billions in subsidies to expand and rebuild other airports? What role did lobby groups, a tenant association and organizations like the Southern Ontario Airport Association play? Who was intentionally excluded from the study i.e. the region, business groups etc.?
As you would expect, the announcement is being cheered on by existing airports who now see an opportunity to lobby for billions in new government grants. Their expectations of new government investments are well-founded.
What role did ideology play in the promised Cancellation?
Why block a new airport that can be built with private investment? An action that results in the need to invest billions of tax dollars in other existing airports or to build another airport somewhere else. Pickering airport’s location, with access to Highway 407 and a rail line, makes it a unique Cinderella opportunity to fund aviation infrastructure with private investment. Private investor interest is primarily due to the ability to create an associated industrial park. A shortage of industrial land across the GTA and soaring land values mean that the airport can be developed without taxpayer funding.
Is scarcity for profit and all-night noise the real plan?
Scarcity for profit appears set to become Torontos aviation’s dominant business model. Unless action is taken, prices on everything, from passenger travel to air cargo, will soar. Flight training is already being squeezed out. Even distance airports such as London Ontario can look forward to less competition and more pricing leverage.
Recent estimates show Toronto Pearson Airport reaching capacity as early as 2029, and no later than the early 2030s. Without billions of new federal tax dollars supporting a major rebuild, congestion, fees and profit-taking will soar.
The only relief will be to lift noise restrictions at existing airports to allow flights 24 hours a day. Millions of Toronto citizens could soon be cursing Anand’s folly at 3 am.
What about lost jobs and tax revenue in the Durham region?
The airport is currently a key part of the Durham Regional Official Plan. Regional and municipal officials appeared caught off guard but had little choice but to outwardly put on a brave face.
The land is federally owned, and aviation is a federal jurisdiction. The region has been looking forward to the airport with an associated 4000-acre industrial park to be a catalyst for private investment and regional economic development. For residents, the missing industrial park will mean higher property taxes and reduced access to high-quality jobs without a long commute.
Will they ask for compensation?
While the Durham Region council supports the airport, in 2023 local Pickering city council Lisa Robinson sponsored a successful motion to withdraw the city of Pickering’s support. In the age of wielding attention for self-promotion on social media, this highlights the impossible task of good governance in a highly partisan political environment.
The need for a national airports plan
In respect to any major infrastructure project, is it possible to align enough politicians (local, provincial and federal) willing to resist the temptations of attention-seeking contrarianism? How can Canadians find the leadership required to support any major infrastructure development?
A strong aviation transportation system, including training, business, utility, cargo and passenger aviation, is essential to Canada’s long-term economic productivity. Unlike other G7 nations, Canada does not have a strategy for an effective national airport infrastructure program. Without a national strategy, we appear doomed to making do with an aging inefficient system of poorly placed airports built in another time for another purpose.
Just a political stunt?
Minister Anand promised to hold consultations with the public, Indigenous communities and the tenants to determine the future use of the land. No mention of whether the aviation, business community and unions will be part of this process.
So, what is going on with a surprise announcement coming out of the blue in the middle of a federal Liberal leadership race? At a time when Canada’s economic prosperity has been lagging for many years and now is being threatened by tariffs by its largest trading partner?
The announcement may be nothing more than political theatre. A federal election is only months away and the Liberals are looking at an epic loss. Recent polls show local liberal MPs losing most if not all their seats in the region and a near wipeout nationwide.
To quote Anand “We want to get going on the consultations. There’s no time to waste,”
Why the rush? Time appears to be running out on a failed Liberal government. Past public consultations have taken years. What are the reasons to rush this change? What behind-the-scenes shenanigans are taking place to lock in the transfer and reward a chosen few?
Is the real goal to create a platform for political theatre in an upcoming election? Or to create a poison pill causing problems for the incoming Conservative government?
Will this decision stand scrutiny?
If good governance is out the window, then the opportunity for the current Liberal government to hide information and reward their friends is huge. It is possible that this is another scandal on the same scale as the currently unfolding Sustainable Development Technology Canada fund. Will the truth be hidden here too?
The hint of panic and partisanship is real. As the saying goes, all politics is local. But will promising to sacrifice regional economic development save a few local Liberal seats? If it doesn’t work, there is no reason for a new Conservative government to honour this promise. And what happened to the idea of good governance above partisanship?
Will Minister Anand soon announce the billions needed to expand Toronto Pearson, Oshawa Airport and Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport to fix the economic mess she just created?
Or is this a worthless promise just to make headlines by a leaderless outgoing government that knows its time is up? Why would a new government from any political party fulfill a promise with such economically devastating consequences?
And so it begins
Three things are certain. Minister Anand’s announcement has turned the economic development of Durham region into an election issue. New aviation infrastructure must be built in the Toronto Area somewhere. If not Pickering, where? And the long story of the Pickering Airport lands economic development is not over yet. In many ways, it is just the beginning of the next chapter in an old story.
And so it begins, with drama, surprise and partisanship.
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What is an Airport Economic Zone?
Canadian sheep love flying out of nice airports but do nothing to make sure they happen. Public ignorance and apathy were the problem as are also the reasons behind many things gone wrong in Canada.
Gatekeepers and scammers like those leasing the lands love the public stupid, so they can gaslight the public about “food security” like a few 1000 acres developed would cause famine. Jenn O’Connell and most of the Pickering city councilors including Robinson are corrupt local politicians in league with the land tenants. They all go back a long time in corrupt municipal politics. And then you have the commie/green Jesus Steven Guilbeault who doesn’t even want new roads built. I believe he was instrumental in rushing this through.
Durham council did not address Pickering AP until FEB 4. Staff only raised questions.
Oshawa has been asked multiple times if they had a plan B in event of such as has come to pass, did.. They had nothing. Still don’t. (and Carter has MP plans 😉 ).
Clearly senior staff in Transport have come to believe Toronto ultimate capacity is non- existent. It was too long coming. That possibility was conveyed in the last Ministers assessment of a Pickering without any rationale as you know.
I agree with your assessment of an angry response, and the ongoing failures of todays National Airport System.
This sudden reversal will fall hard on GTAA illustrating their remarkable inabilities to realistically forecast. It will also fall very hard on the planning staff in Durham Region and Oshawa. Deservedly for all three.
The next meeting of Pickering council Feb 26 will be interesting and very stressful for Chair Henry. One could only hope.
As a PS you should know (?) that P Polievre was secretary to Minister Transport 2011-2015. He of all people should have known the NASPL was Flaherty / Anderson monkey business.