A new airport in North Pickering just east of Toronto is now one of the centerpieces of the Durham Region’s draft official plan. While the plan must still be approved by the province, this is expected to be a nonissue. So, what are the next steps on the path to shovels in the ground on the airport site? Expect the federal government to take three steps in the next few years.
The first step is already underway – a final snapshot aviation capacity study. Canadabuys, a procurement arm of the federal government, has issued a request for proposal seeking an aviation consultant to evaluate all existing Pickering airport studies and analyses, and to recommend a roadmap for moving forward. The government wants the work to commence on June 1.
Unlike the ASA report released in 2020 that used pre-covid data and was full of what if scenarios, this final study will be reality focused. It is expected to be a snapshot of existing post Covid aviation growth and capacity in the GTA that either already exists or is funded in an existing airport master plan.  It should take into account new net zero emissions aviation fuels and technology to estimate aviation traffic growth in the coming decade. It will focus on the industrial aspects of the new Pickering airport (as suggested by the ASA report) not just passenger capacity.
The mayor of Pickering has just made a statement about this new study.
The second step will be a full inventory of the environmental cleanup required on the Pickering lands now leased out to an anointed few corporations and individuals. Expect it to recommend the immediate cancelation of a number of the land leases to enable an environmental cleanup and prep for development of the worst areas. This is expected to be included in or to dove-tail into the recently announced federal environmental assessment of the effects of development in and adjacent to the Rouge National Urban Park. Like the Pickering Airport lands, the majority of the RNUP is leased out to a few farmers and corporations. It will hopefully also try to answer the nagging question of abuse of the land over the years by industrial farm practices.
Third, with the data from the first two steps in hand, expect a Request For Information (RFI) announcement from the Minister of Transport to private industry interested in investing in the airport project.
Good governance of the publicly owned land asset, now worth billions of dollars, requires the fast assembly of accurate post-COVID data on aviation trends, capacity Supply-Demand projections, environmental issues and industry interest.
We are now only a few steps away from a greenlight to develop the federal Pickering lands including an airport.
References:
News & Public Notices – City of Pickering
The following like to the tender for study was posted and then removed a day later. A new one is expected
Request for Proposals: https://canadabuys.canada.ca/en/tender-opportunities/tender-notice/cb-4455-6134798
Wrong conclusions.
1) it tells you that the kpmg study was total rubbish and they do not trust it..
2) it confirms the gtaa numbers in 2008 master plan were wrong ..but that was obvious.
3) it confirms they no longer have faith in gtaa’s 2017 master plan or their forecasting ability……nor should they as Covid as moved everything to the right .
4) they now understand the 5 runway forecast is beyond the next 20 year master plan ( 2027-2047) and they need some sort of outlook beyond 20 years to answer the question as to possible dates for the 6th runway build and the likelihood of cancelling Pickering altogether.
And we will know in 1 month when the gtaa 5 year forecast comes in their annual report.
Gtaa is 3 Ponzi schemes in a trench coat. And all such schemes fail in time.